The Wrap Question, week by week
One piece of bread, rolled. The structural cousin of the hot dog.
Week 42, 2026, up close
Did each model agree with itself?
Every sample's answer, in the order it was taken, under each framing. A row of identical chips is a model that has made up its mind. Y is yes, N is no, ~ is a hedge.
| Model | Control | Asserted | Denied | Self-agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 100% | |||
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 89% | |||
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 100% | |||
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 100% | |||
| GPT-5.5 | 100% | |||
| GPT-5.4 mini | 100% | |||
| Grok 4.6 | 100% | |||
| Grok 4.3 | 100% | |||
| Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) | 89% | |||
| Mistral Medium 3.5 | no data | no data | no data | — |
| Mistral Small 4 | no data | no data | no data | — |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 89% |
How much did latency swing?
The fastest and slowest call behind each median, asked plainly. A long bar is a model whose speed you cannot count on.
| Model | Range | Fastest | Median | Slowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 2.3 s | 3.4 s | 9 s | |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 s | 1.1 s | 1.2 s | |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 464 ms | 519 ms | 520 ms | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 914 ms | 926 ms | 1.3 s | |
| GPT-5.5 | 1.1 s | 1.2 s | 1.3 s | |
| GPT-5.4 mini | 596 ms | 697 ms | 1.2 s | |
| Grok 4.6 | 12.1 s | 14.5 s | 15.3 s | |
| Grok 4.3 | 10.2 s | 13.4 s | 15.3 s | |
| Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) | 441 ms | 570 ms | 9 s | |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | 1.6 s | 1.8 s | 2 s |
Asked again the same week
Week 42, 2026 was run once. When a week is re-run, the earlier runs are kept and the answers that changed between them show up here.
Across editions
Week by week
Each model contributes one vote, based on its majority verdict across samples, so a model sampled three times does not outvote one sampled once.
Show the data
| Edition | Affirmative | Negative | Non-committal | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
- Affirmative
- Negative
- Non-committal
How easily each model changes its mind
Framing sensitivity per edition: the share of questions where telling the model the answer changed it. Editions that ran only the control leave a gap.
8% vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Opus 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 8% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Claude Sonnet 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 33% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 33% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 33% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 33% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 25% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Claude Haiku 4.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 25% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.6 Sol |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 50% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 50% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.4 mini |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 50% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.6 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 8% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.3 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 8% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 17% |
17% vs prior
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 33% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 55% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 33% |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Medium 3.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Small 4 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 50% |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | DeepSeek V4 Pro |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 37, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 38, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 39, 2026 | 25% |
| Week 40, 2026 | 17% |
| Week 42, 2026 | 17% |
Median latency by model
134 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Opus 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 2.6 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 3.6 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 3.6 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 3 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 3.6 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 3.4 s |
891 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Sonnet 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 1.1 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 1.4 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1.1 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 1.2 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1.9 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 1.1 s |
20 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Haiku 4.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 633 ms |
| Week 37, 2026 | 672 ms |
| Week 38, 2026 | 514 ms |
| Week 39, 2026 | 474 ms |
| Week 40, 2026 | 539 ms |
| Week 42, 2026 | 519 ms |
83 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.6 Sol |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 1.3 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 1.7 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1.2 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 1.9 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 926 ms |
285 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 1.3 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 1.4 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1.5 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 1.8 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1.4 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 1.2 s |
476 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.4 mini |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 678 ms |
| Week 37, 2026 | 650 ms |
| Week 38, 2026 | 4.1 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 906 ms |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1.2 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 697 ms |
6.2 s vs prior
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.6 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 7 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 7 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 8.8 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 8.2 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 8.4 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 14.5 s |
10 s vs prior
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.3 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 4.6 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 3.9 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 3.8 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 3.2 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 3.4 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 13.4 s |
101 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 385 ms |
| Week 37, 2026 | 437 ms |
| Week 38, 2026 | 438 ms |
| Week 39, 2026 | 455 ms |
| Week 40, 2026 | 469 ms |
| Week 42, 2026 | 570 ms |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Medium 3.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 332 ms |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Small 4 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 355 ms |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
158 ms vs prior
Data
| Edition | DeepSeek V4 Pro |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 4 s |
| Week 37, 2026 | 2 s |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1.8 s |
| Week 39, 2026 | 2.3 s |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1.6 s |
| Week 42, 2026 | 1.8 s |
Median output tokens by model
9 vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Opus 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 125 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 178 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 193 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 137 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 202 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 193 |
54 vs prior
Data
| Edition | Claude Sonnet 5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 7 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 7 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 87 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 33 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Claude Haiku 4.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 5 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.6 Sol |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 24 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 6 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 6 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 6 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 6 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 6 |
13 vs prior
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 39 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 39 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 37 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 42 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 45 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 32 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | GPT-5.4 mini |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 5 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 5 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.6 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 1 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.3 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 1 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 1 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 2 |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Medium 3.5 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 3 |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
unchanged
Data
| Edition | Mistral Small 4 |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 2 |
| Week 37, 2026 | — |
| Week 38, 2026 | — |
| Week 39, 2026 | — |
| Week 40, 2026 | — |
| Week 42, 2026 | — |
7 vs prior
Data
| Edition | DeepSeek V4 Pro |
|---|---|
| Week 36, 2026 | 155 |
| Week 37, 2026 | 67 |
| Week 38, 2026 | 66 |
| Week 39, 2026 | 103 |
| Week 40, 2026 | 86 |
| Week 42, 2026 | 79 |
Position changes
| Model | Previous position | Revised position | Between editions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | Affirmative | Negative | Week 40, 2026 → Week 42, 2026 |
| Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) | Affirmative | Negative | Week 40, 2026 → Week 42, 2026 |
| Claude Opus 5 | Negative | Affirmative | Week 36, 2026 → Week 37, 2026 |