The Hot Dog Question, week by week
Bread on two sides. One piece or two? The question that started all this.
Week 36, 2026, up close
Did each model agree with itself?
Every sample's answer, in the order it was taken, under each framing. A row of identical chips is a model that has made up its mind. Y is yes, N is no, ~ is a hedge.
| Model | Control | Asserted | Denied | Self-agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 89% | |||
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 78% | |||
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 89% | |||
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 100% | |||
| GPT-5.5 | 100% | |||
| GPT-5.4 mini | 89% | |||
| Grok 4.6 | 89% | |||
| Grok 4.3 | 78% | |||
| Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) | 100% | |||
| Mistral Medium 3.5 | 100% | |||
| Mistral Small 4 | 100% |
How much did latency swing?
The fastest and slowest call behind each median, asked plainly. A long bar is a model whose speed you cannot count on.
| Model | Range | Fastest | Median | Slowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 2.1 s | 2.7 s | 2.8 s | |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1.1 s | 1.3 s | 1.7 s | |
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 606 ms | 623 ms | 630 ms | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1.1 s | 1.6 s | 1.7 s | |
| GPT-5.5 | 1.3 s | 1.6 s | 3.6 s | |
| GPT-5.4 mini | 521 ms | 575 ms | 1.3 s | |
| Grok 4.6 | 8.3 s | 12.6 s | 15.6 s | |
| Grok 4.3 | 5 s | 5.6 s | 9 s | |
| Grok 4.20 (non-reasoning) | 382 ms | 480 ms | 956 ms | |
| Mistral Medium 3.5 | 309 ms | 348 ms | 358 ms | |
| Mistral Small 4 | 324 ms | 347 ms | 347 ms |
Asked again the same week
Week 36, 2026 was run 3 times, on September 2, 2026, September 2, 2026, September 2, 2026. Answers that changed between consecutive runs:
None. Every model gave the same majority answer each time.
Across editions
Week by week
One edition so far. Trends start with the second one; a line through a single point is a drawing, not a measurement.
Position changes
No model has changed its answer on a hot dog between consecutive editions.